Socio-economic and environmental impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan-an integrated analysis

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected about 210 countries with more than 67 million confirmed cases and over 1.5 million deaths across the globe including Pakistan. Considering the population density, health care capacity, existing poverty and environmental factors with more than 420,000 infected people and about 8300 plus mortalities, community transmission of the coronavirus happened rapidly in Pakistan. This paper analyses the short- and long-term effects of COVID-19 peak on the socio-economic and environmental aspects of Pakistan. According to the estimates, an economic loss of about 10%, i.e. 1.1 trillion PKR, will be observed in the FY 2021. Certain pandemic impediment measures like lockdowns, social distancing and travel restrictions taken by the Government have been thoroughly analysed to determine how they impacted the livelihoods of nearly 7.15 million workers. Consequently, a rise of 33.7% of poverty level is projected. While many negative impacts on primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy such as agriculture, education and health care are observed, a drastic improvement in air quality index of urban centres of the country has been recorded amid lockdowns. With current economic crisis, fragile health care system and critical health literacy, a well-managed and coordinated action plan is required from all segments of the society led by the public authorities. Thorough assessment of COVID-19 scenario, management and control measures presented in this study can be assistive for the provision of policy guidelines to governments and think tanks of countries with similar socio-economic and cultural structure.

Keywords: Air quality; Coronavirus; Disaster preparedness; Disease outbreak; Environment; Lockdown.

Fig. 1

COVID 19 outbreak figures (as of October 6, 2020) of Pakistan

Fig. 2

Percent variation in global GDP rate from 2005 to 2021

Fig. 3

Per capita expenditure of health by the government in Pakistan and its neighbouring countries

Fig. 4

Variation in the prices of wheat, rice and pulses per 100 kg in Pakistan from March 15, 2020, to July 25, 2020

Fig. 5

Variations in prices of major vegetables and fruits in Pakistan from March 15 2020, to July 25, 2020. a Variations in prices of three major vegetables in Pakistan from March 15, 2020, to July 25, 2020. b Variations in prices of major fruits in Pakistan from March 15, 2020 to July 25, 2020

Fig. 6

Poverty rates at different economic recession scenarios in Pakistan

Fig. 7

Number of students affected by the COVID-19-induced closure of educational institutions in Pakistan (Hyder 2020)

Fig. 8

Number of international tourists worldwide from 2015 to 2020

Fig. 9

Percent change in the import and export flow of Pakistan from August 2019 to June 2020. a Variations in the flow of exports and imports between Pakistan and the USA from August 2019 to June 2020. b Variations in the flow of exports and imports between Pakistan and the UK from August 2019 to June 2020. c Variations in the flow of exports and imports between Pakistan and China from August 2019 to June 2020. d Variations in the flow of exports and imports between Pakistan and Germany from August 2019 to June 2020