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. 2021 Jan;26(1):2001978.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.26.1.2001978.

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

Paolo Bosetti  1 , Cécile Tran Kiem  1   2 , Yazdan Yazdanpanah  3 , Arnaud Fontanet  4   5 , Bruno Lina  6   7 , Vittoria Colizza  8 , Simon Cauchemez  1
Affiliations

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

Paolo Bosetti et al. Euro Surveill. 2021 Jan.

Abstract

We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Under optimistic assumptions, one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20-30%. Consequently, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited through a combination of interventions.

Keywords: Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; epidemic; mass testing.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: YY has received honoraria for presentations at workshops and consultancy honoraria from Abbvie, Gilead, Merck, J&J and ViiV health care before 2017; there are no conflicts of interest to declare after 2017.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Expected number of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections with monthly or biweekly testing campaigns, by date and percentage of population tested, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
Figure 2
Figure 2
Impact of a single mass testing campaign for SARS-CoV-2 on (A) reduction of daily infections 10 days after mass testing and (B) number of days to return to pre-mass testing epidemiological situation, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
Figure 3
Figure 3
Expected maximum number of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections as a function of the number of days between consecutive campaigns and the proportion of the population tested in each campaign, for different doubling times, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
Figure 4
Figure 4
Frequency of mass testing campaigns necessary to keep the number of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections below 40,000, as a function of the proportion of the population tested in each campaign, for different modelling assumptions, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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