Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Jan;26(1):2001978.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.26.1.2001978.

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

Paolo Bosetti  1 , Cécile Tran Kiem  1   2 , Yazdan Yazdanpanah  3 , Arnaud Fontanet  4   5 , Bruno Lina  6   7 , Vittoria Colizza  8 , Simon Cauchemez  1
Affiliations

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

Paolo Bosetti et al. Euro Surveill. 2021 Jan.

Abstract

We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Under optimistic assumptions, one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20-30%. Consequently, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited through a combination of interventions.

Keywords: Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; epidemic; mass testing.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: YY has received honoraria for presentations at workshops and consultancy honoraria from Abbvie, Gilead, Merck, J&J and ViiV health care before 2017; there are no conflicts of interest to declare after 2017.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Expected number of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections with monthly or biweekly testing campaigns, by date and percentage of population tested, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
Figure 2
Figure 2
Impact of a single mass testing campaign for SARS-CoV-2 on (A) reduction of daily infections 10 days after mass testing and (B) number of days to return to pre-mass testing epidemiological situation, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
Figure 3
Figure 3
Expected maximum number of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections as a function of the number of days between consecutive campaigns and the proportion of the population tested in each campaign, for different doubling times, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
Figure 4
Figure 4
Frequency of mass testing campaigns necessary to keep the number of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections below 40,000, as a function of the proportion of the population tested in each campaign, for different modelling assumptions, France, 4 January–1 May 2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Mina MJ, Parker R, Larremore DB. Rethinking Covid-19 test sensitivity - a strategy for containment. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(22):e120. 10.1056/NEJMp2025631 - DOI - PubMed
    1. van Beek J, Igloi Z, Boelsums T, Fanoy E, Gotz H, Molenkamp R, et al. From more testing to smart testing: data-guided SARS-CoV-2 testing choices; medRxiv 2020. Available from: 10.1101/2020.10.13.20211524 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Alemany A, Baro B, Ouchi D, Ubals M, Corbacho-Monné M, Vergara-Alert J, et al. Analytical and clinical performance of the Panbio COVID-19 antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic test; medRxiv 2020. Available from: 10.1101/2020.10.30.20223198 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Salje H, Tran Kiem C, Lefrancq N, Courtejoie N, Bosetti P, Paireau J, et al. Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Science. 2020;369(6500):208-11. 10.1126/science.abc3517 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M. How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc Biol Sci. 2007;274(1609):599-604. 10.1098/rspb.2006.3754 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types