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. 2021 Jan 7;13(1):45-57.
doi: 10.3390/idr13010007.

On Pilot Massive COVID-19 Testing by Antigen Tests in Europe. Case Study: Slovakia

Jaroslav Frnda  1 , Marek Durica  1
Affiliations

On Pilot Massive COVID-19 Testing by Antigen Tests in Europe. Case Study: Slovakia

Jaroslav Frnda et al. Infect Dis Rep. .

Abstract

This paper provides a summary of mass COVID-19 testing of almost the entire population in Slovakia by antigen tests. We focused on the results delivered by two testing rounds and analyzed the benefits and weaknesses of such type of testing. We prepared mathematical models to critically examine the effectiveness of the testing, and we also estimated the number of potentially sick people that would become infected by those marked as positives by antigen tests. Our calculations have proven that antigen testing in hotspots can flatten the curve of daily newly reported cases significantly, but in regions with low-risk of COVID-19, the benefit of such testing is questionable. As for the regions with low infection rates, we could only estimate the proportion of true and false-positive cases because the national health authority had not validated the results by RT-PCR tests. Therefore, this work can serve as an introductory study on the first nationwide testing by antigen tests in Europe.

Keywords: COVID-19; estimation of infection rate; nationwide antigen testing.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Pandemic situation on the day before the trial testing. Dark color characterizes districts with a higher number of confirmed positive cases by RT–PCR tests [18].
Figure 2
Figure 2
Forecast of the cumulative number of infected people (caused by those who would not be discovered by trial testing) based on the exponential model.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Forecast of the cumulative number of infected people (caused by those who would not be discovered by trial testing) based on the logistic model.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Multiplication of 7-day incidence- RT–PCR testing (28 November vs. 21 November) [20].
Figure 5
Figure 5
Test positivity percentage in Slovakian districts (mass antigen testing 31 October–1 November 2020) [20].
Figure 6
Figure 6
Forecast of the cumulative number of infected people (caused by those who would not be discovered by nationwide testing) based on the exponential model.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Forecast of the cumulative number of infected people (caused by those who would not be discovered by nationwide testing) based on the logistic model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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