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. 2021 Jan 12;21(1):54.
doi: 10.1186/s12885-020-07778-1.

Recent incidence trend of elderly patients with glioblastoma in the United States, 2000-2017

Boran Chen  1   2 , Chaoyue Chen  1   3 , Yang Zhang  1   2 , Jianguo Xu  4
Affiliations

Recent incidence trend of elderly patients with glioblastoma in the United States, 2000-2017

Boran Chen et al. BMC Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: The incidence of glioblastoma increases significantly with age. With the growing and aging population, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of recent glioblastoma incidence trend in the United States. This study aims to provide in-depth description of the patterns of incidence trends and to examine the age-period-cohort effects to the trends of glioblastoma specific to elderly patients.

Methods: The incidence rates were age-adjusted and reported per 100,000 population. We calculated the annual percent change (APC) in incidence using the Joinpoint Regression Program and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of elderly glioblastoma reported between 2000 and 2017 to the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 registry database.

Results: The overall incidence rate of elderly patients with glioblastoma was 13.16 per 100,000 (95% CI, 12.99-13.32) from 2000 to 2017. Non-Hispanic whites (20,406, 83.6%) made up the majority. The incidence rate of male was about 1.62 times that of female. The trend of incidence remained stable and there was a non-significant increasing tendency for all elderly patients (APC 0.3, 95% CI, - 0.1 to 0.7, p = 0.111). There was a significantly increasing incidence trend for non-Hispanic white (APC 0.6, 95% CI, 0.2 to 1.1, p = 0.013), supratentorial location (APC 0.7, 95% CI, 0.2 to 1.3, p = 0.016), tumor size < 4 cm (APC 2.5, 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.6, p < 0.001), and a significantly decreasing trend for overlapping/NOS location (APC -0.9, 95% CI, - 1.6 to - 0.2, p = 0.012), and unknown tumor size (APC -4.9, 95% CI, - 6.6 to - 3.3, p < 0.001). The age-period-cohort analysis showed the effect of age on incidence trends (p< 0.001, Wald test), while did not indicate the period and cohort effects of the incidence trends of glioblastoma (p = 0.063 and p =0.536, respectively, Wald test).

Conclusion: The overall incidence of glioblastoma in the elderly population remained stable between 2000 and 2017. Period and cohort effects were not evident in the trend of glioblastoma incidence. Future population-based studies exploring the difference in the trend of glioblastoma incidence by specific molecular subgroups are warranted to further our understanding of the etiology of glioblastoma.

Keywords: Age-adjusted incidence rate; Age-period-cohort analysis; Annual percentage change; Elderly; Glioblastoma; Join-point analysis; SEER.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Annual age-adjusted incidence rates of glioblastoma (a) in the elderly and the young, and in the elderly by (b) gender, and (d) race. Incidence rate ratios of elderly glioblastoma for (c) gender by 5-year age groups
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Annual age-adjusted incidence rates for elderly glioblastoma by (a) 5-year age groups, (b) histological type, (c) location, and (d) tumor size
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Age-period-cohort parameters and functions for the incidence of glioblastoma in the elderly, including (a) longitudinal age curve, (b) period RR, (c) cohort RR, and (d) local drifts with net drift. The shaded gray regions represent the 95% confidence interval. The solid and dot horizontal lines in (d) represent net drift and the 95% confidence interval. RR, rate ratio
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