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. 2021 Jan 12;21(1):129.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-10149-x.

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

Ayo Stephen Adebowale  1 , Adeniyi F Fagbamigbe  1 , Joshua O Akinyemi  1   2 , Olalekan K Obisesan  3 , Emmanuel J Awosanya  4 , Rotimi F Afolabi  5   6 , Selim A Alarape  4 , Sunday O Obabiyi  7
Affiliations

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

Ayo Stephen Adebowale et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak.

Methods: Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05).

Results: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal.

Conclusions: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.

Keywords: COVID-19; Model fit; Nigeria; Situation assessment.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Daily COVID-19 confirmed cases as at the first 120 days of the outbreak in Nigeria. A graphical display of the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases in selected countries as at the first 120-day of the outbreak. A graphical presentation of the cumulative daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the first 120 days after the outbreak in eight countries
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
COVID-19 cumulative daily deaths for the first 120 days in selected countries. A figure showing the distribution of COVID-19-related deaths within the first 120 days after the outbreak
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Predictive model of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. A graphical display of the observed and predicted cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the selected countries, using the four models
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Observed and projected COVID-19 cumulative cases in Nigeria. A graphical display of the observed and estimated values of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria using both quadratic and cubic polynomial models
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