Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

Abstract

COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths-one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black-White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

Keywords: COVID-19; disparities; life expectancy; mortality; race and ethnicity.

Fig. 1.

Life expectancy projections for 2020 by race and ethnicity in the absence of COVID-19 and under the medium scenario. The COVID-19 medium scenario is based on the IHME current projection scenario (October 9, 2020 update).

Fig. 2.

Trends in life expectancy at birth by race and ethnicity: 1980–2020. Note that the data for the Black and White populations prior to 2006 include Latinos; data for these groups from 2006 onward are for the non-Latino Black and non-Latino White populations. The projections for 2020 are based on the IHME current projection scenario (October 9, 2020 update).

Fig. 3.

Trends in racial and ethnic differences in life expectancy at birth: 1980–2020. Note that the data for the Black and White populations prior to 2006 include Latinos; data for these groups from 2006 onward are for the non-Latino Black and non-Latino White populations. The projections for 2020 are based on the IHME current projection scenario (October 9, 2020 update).