How will climate change impact fossorial lizard species? Two examples in the Baja California Peninsula

Abstract

Global climate change and the associated erosion of habitat suitability are pervasive threats to biodiversity. It is critical to identify specific stressors to assess a species vulnerability to extinction, especially in species with distinctive natural histories. Here, we present a combination of field, laboratory, and modeling approaches to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on two endemic, fossorial lizards species (Anniella geronimensis and Bipes biporus) from Baja California, Mexico. We also include soil type in our models to refine the suitable areas using our mechanistic models. Results suggest that both species are at high risk of extinction by global climate change based on the thermal habitat suitability. The forecast for species persistence is most grave under the RCP8.5 scenario. On the one hand, suitable habitat for A. geronimensis diminishes at its southern distribution, but potential suitable expands towards the north. On the other hand, the suitable habitat for B. biporus will contract significantly with a concomitant reduction in its potential distribution. Because both species have low mobility and are restricted to low elevation, the potential for elevational and latitudinal dispersal to mitigate extinction risk along the Baja California Peninsula is unlikely. In addition each species has specialized thermal requirements (i.e., stenothermic) and soil type preferences to which they are adapted. Our ecophysiological models in combination with the type of soil are fundamental in developing conservation strategies.

Keywords: Biophysical variables; Ecophysiological model; Global warming; Habitat thermal quality; Mechanistic approach.