Does COVID-19 affect metro use in Taipei?

Abstract

This paper provides the first evidence of the causal effect of COVID-19 on metro use using real-time data from the Taipei Metro System in Taiwan. In contrast to other cities or countries, Taiwan did not enforce strict social lockdowns or mandatory stay-at-home orders to combat COVID-19. The major prevention strategies to the pandemic in Taiwan include promoting social distancing, mandating the wearing of face masks in public areas, and requiring all international arrivals to quarantine for 14 days. Using administrative data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 and ridership from metro stations with the difference-in-differences model, we find that an additional new confirmed case of COVID-19 reduces metro use by 1.43% after controlling for local socio-demographic variables associated with ridership and the number of international arrivals to Taiwan. This result implies that the reduction in metro trips is attributable to decreases in residents' use of public transportation due to perceived health risks. Furthermore, the effect of COVID-19 on metro use disproportionally impacts stations with different characteristics. The effect is more pronounced for metro stations connected to night markets, shopping centers, or colleges. Although decreases in metro ridership lower the revenue of the Taipei Metro System, our results indicate a tradeoff between increased financial burdens of public transportation systems and reducing medical expenses associated with COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Difference-in-differences; Lockdowns; Metro traffic; Taipei metro system.

Fig. 1

The time trend of the number of metro trips between January 1 to March 31 (2017 to 2020).

Fig. A.1

Distribution of all metro stations in Taipei City and New Taipei City. Note: There are 119 stations in the Taipei Metro System operated in March 31, 2020. The figure was drawn from the Taipei Metro Company.