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. 2021 Jan 26;118(4):e2012704118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2012704118.

Rational policymaking during a pandemic

Loïc Berger  1   2 , Nicolas Berger  3   4 , Valentina Bosetti  2   5   6 , Itzhak Gilboa  7   8 , Lars Peter Hansen  9   10   11 , Christopher Jarvis  12 , Massimo Marinacci  6   13 , Richard D Smith  3   14
Affiliations

Rational policymaking during a pandemic

Loïc Berger et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.

Keywords: ambiguity; model uncertainty; robustness.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Overview of the decision problem under uncertainty.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Case study. School closures and their length during the COVID-19 pandemic (see refs. 52–69). Details are provided in SI Appendix.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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