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. 2021 Apr;98(2):205-210.
doi: 10.1007/s11524-021-00514-5. Epub 2021 Jan 25.

Predictors of COVID-19-Confirmed Cases and Fatalities in 883 US Counties with a Population of 50,000 or More: Estimated Effect of Initial Prevention Policies

Leon S Robertson  1
Affiliations

Predictors of COVID-19-Confirmed Cases and Fatalities in 883 US Counties with a Population of 50,000 or More: Estimated Effect of Initial Prevention Policies

Leon S Robertson. J Urban Health. 2021 Apr.

Abstract

Control of diseases transmitted from person to person may be more effectively and less economically damaging if preventive and ameliorative efforts are focused on the more vulnerable local areas rather than entire countries, provinces, or states. The spread of the COVID-19 virus is highly concentrated in urban US counties. Sixteen factors known or thought to be related to spread of the COVID-19 virus were studied by Poisson regression analysis of confirmed cases and deaths in 883 US counties with a population of 50,000 or more as of May 31, 2020. Evidence of crowding in homes, workplaces, religious gatherings, preexisting health conditions in the population, and local economic and demographic conditions, with one exception, was predictive of incidence and mortality. Based on the correlation of cases and deaths to length of stay-at-home orders, the orders were associated with about 52% reduced cases and about 55% reduced deaths from those expected without the orders.

Keywords: COVID-19; corona virus; demographic factors; infectious disease; social factors,economic factors,.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in the 200 counties with the most cases, USA, May 31, 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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