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. 2021 Mar-Apr:73:101783.
doi: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2021.101783. Epub 2021 Jan 21.

When COVID-19 and guns meet: A rise in shootings

Dae-Young Kim  1 , Scott W Phillips  1
Affiliations

When COVID-19 and guns meet: A rise in shootings

Dae-Young Kim et al. J Crim Justice. 2021 Mar-Apr.

Abstract

Objective: The present study examines the impact of the COVID-19 stay-at-home order on gun violence in Buffalo, New York: fatal shootings, all non-fatal shootings, non-fatal shootings with injury, and non-fatal shootings without injury. It also estimated its impact on gang and non-gang related shootings.

Methods: Weekly crime data are analyzed at the city level using ARIMA and poisson models. Forecasting is used to verify the validity of both ARIMA and poisson models.

Results: The effect of the pandemic was conditional upon the types of gun violence and impact models of intervention. The pandemic caused a temporary increase in fatal shootings while leading to a long-term increase in all non-fatal shootings, non-fatal shootings with injury, non-fatal shootings without injury, and gang related shootings.

Conclusions: The pandemic has changed the volume of gun violence possibly due to increased strain and/or changed routine activities. This study not only promotes further research but also has policy implications for public health and safety. From a public policy perspective, criminal justice agencies should focus more attention and resources on gun violence resulting from a sense of strain and fear among individuals during the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Fatal shootings; Gang related shootings; Gun violence; Non-fatal shootings; Pandemic; Stay-at-home orders.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Shootings in Buffalo.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Forecast Evaluation for ARIMA and Poisson Models. Notes. For fatal and non-fatal shootings, Estimation Sample: 1/2/2017–7/27/2020 (187 observations). Forecast Sample: 8/3/2020 10/5/2020 (10 observations). For gang- and non-gang related shootings, Estimation Sample: 12/31/2018–7/27/2020 (83 observations). Forecast Sample: 8/3/2020 10/5/2020 (10 observations).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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