A new study of unreported cases of 2019-nCOV epidemic outbreaks

Abstract

2019-nCOV epidemic is one of the greatest threat that the mortality faced since the World War-2 and most decisive global health calamity of the century. In this manuscript, we study the epidemic prophecy for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCOV) epidemic in Wuhan, China by using q-homotopy analysis transform method (q-HATM). We considered the reported case data to parameterise the model and to identify the number of unreported cases. A new analysis with the proposed epidemic 2019-nCOV model for unreported cases is effectuated. For the considered system exemplifying the model of coronavirus, the series solution is established within the frame of the Caputo derivative. The developed results are explained using figures which show the behaviour of the projected model. The results show that the used scheme is highly emphatic and easy to implementation for the system of nonlinear equations. Further, the present study can confirm the applicability and effect of fractional operators to real-world problems.

Keywords: Caputo derivative, q-homotopy analysis transform method; Coronavirus; Epidemic mathematical model; Reported and unreported cases.

Fig. 1

Nature of obtained solution for (i) S(t), (ii) I(t), (iii) R(t) and (iv) U(t) for different α at $\hslash =-1,n=1$ and using Table 1.