Momentum managing epidemic spread and Bessel functions
- PMID: 33519105
- PMCID: PMC7831999
- DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110234
Momentum managing epidemic spread and Bessel functions
Abstract
Starting with the power law for the total number of detected infections, we propose differential equations describing the effect of momentum epidemic management. Our 2-phase formula matches very well the curves of the total numbers of the Covid-19 infection in many countries; the first phase is described by Bessel functions. It provides projections for the saturation, assuming that the management is steady. We discuss Austria, Brazil, Germany, Japan, India, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and the USA, including some analysis of the second waves.
Keywords: 33C10; 92B05; Bessel functions; Epidemic psychology; Epidemic spread.
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors whose names are listed immediately below certify that they have NO affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest (such as honoraria; educational grants; participation in speakers’ xbureaus; membership, employment, consultancies, stock ownership, or other equity interest; and expert testimony or patent-licensing arrangements), or non-financial interest (such as personal or professional relationships, affiliations, knowledge or beliefs) in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.
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