Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mobility in ten countries and associated perceived risk for all transport modes

Abstract

The restrictive measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have triggered sudden massive changes to travel behaviors of people all around the world. This study examines the individual mobility patterns for all transport modes (walk, bicycle, motorcycle, car driven alone, car driven in company, bus, subway, tram, train, airplane) before and during the restrictions adopted in ten countries on six continents: Australia, Brazil, China, Ghana, India, Iran, Italy, Norway, South Africa and the United States. This cross-country study also aims at understanding the predictors of protective behaviors related to the transport sector and COVID-19. Findings hinge upon an online survey conducted in May 2020 (N = 9,394). The empirical results quantify tremendous disruptions for both commuting and non-commuting travels, highlighting substantial reductions in the frequency of all types of trips and use of all modes. In terms of potential virus spread, airplanes and buses are perceived to be the riskiest transport modes, while avoidance of public transport is consistently found across the countries. According to the Protection Motivation Theory, the study sheds new light on the fact that two indicators, namely income inequality, expressed as Gini index, and the reported number of deaths due to COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants, aggravate respondents' perceptions. This research indicates that socio-economic inequality and morbidity are not only related to actual health risks, as well documented in the relevant literature, but also to the perceived risks. These findings document the global impact of the COVID-19 crisis as well as provide guidance for transportation practitioners in developing future strategies.

Fig 1. Survey outreach.

Sample size, geographical distribution of respondents within each country (percent), gender split, median age, Commuting Distance (CD) under pre-pandemic conditions and Work-From-Home (WFH) rate. Maps are adapted for illustrative purpose from images that are publicly available according to Creative Commons 4.0 License [–68].

Fig 2. Mobility before and during the implementation of pandemic-related restrictive measures.

Mobility related to commuting travels of survey respondents who did not work from home during restrictions (N = 1,210) (A) and mobility related to non-communing travels of all survey respondents (N = 9,394) during free time (B) and for different purposes (C).

Fig 3. Perceptions encompassing mobility and pandemic.

Perceived probability of contracting COVID-19 (A) and perceived effectiveness of curbing COVID-19 (B) for transport modes according to a Likert-type scale varying from “1 = extremely low/ineffective” to “7 = extremely high/effective”. Perceived time needed by the transportation sector to completely recover (C) according to the scale “1 = less than 6 months”, “2 = between 6 and 12 months”, “3 = between 12 and 18 months”, “4 = between 18 and 24 months”, “5 = more than 24 months”.