Prevalence, Disease-free, and Overall Survival of Contemporary Patients With Renal Cell Carcinoma Eligible for Adjuvant Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials

Abstract

Introduction: Designing adjuvant trials is challenging because of uncertainties of prevalence and outcome of high-risk renal cell cancer (RCC) despite use of validated risk scores. Our objective is to investigate how differences in eligibility criteria may impact on potential study results in RCC adjuvant trials.

Patients and methods: RECUR is a multicenter European database capturing patient and tumor characteristics, recurrence patterns, and survival of those curatively treated for non-metastatic RCC from 2006 to 2011 without any adjuvant therapy. We used RECUR to evaluate prevalence, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) according to eligibility criteria of immunotherapy-based adjuvant trials IMMotion 010 (NCT03024996), Checkmate 914 (NCT03138512), Keynote-564 (NCT03142334), RAMPART (NCT03288532), and PROSPER (NCT03055013).

Results: Of 3024 relevant patients in RECUR, 408 (13.5%), 725 (24%), 609 (20.1%), 1363 (45.1%), and 1071 (35.4%) met eligibility criteria for IMMotion-010, CheckMate-914, Keynote-564, RAMPART, and PROSPER, respectively. The median and 5-year DFS Kaplan-Meier estimates in RECUR corresponding to each trial eligibility criteria were: not reached and 69.6% for RAMPART; not reached and 64.5% for PROSPER; 109.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 83.9-134.6 months) and 57% for CheckMate-914; 75.8 months (95% CI, 52.7-98.8 months) and 54.3% for Keynote-564; and 43.6 months (95% CI, 30.8-56.4 months) and 45% for IMMotion-010. Our analysis may be limited by the retrospective design.

Conclusions: RECUR provides estimated DFS and OS benchmarks for placebo arms of adjuvant checkpoint inhibitor studies and hence likely time to trial reporting. Well-documented contemporary registries rather than past risk models should be used to design future adjuvant trials.

Keywords: Adjuvant studies; Adjuvant therapy; Clinical trials; Immunotherapy; Kidney cancer; Targeted therapy.