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[Preprint]. 2021 Jan 28:2020.09.27.20199737.
doi: 10.1101/2020.09.27.20199737.

High-Quality Masks Reduce COVID-19 Infections and Deaths in the US

Erik Rosenstrom  1 , Buse Eylul Oruc  2 , Nathaniel Hupert  3 , Julie Ivy  1 , Pinar Keskinocak  2   4 , Maria E Mayorga  1 , Julie L Swann  1   5
Affiliations

High-Quality Masks Reduce COVID-19 Infections and Deaths in the US

Erik Rosenstrom et al. medRxiv. .

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of widespread adoption of masks or face coverings to reduce community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

Methods: We created an agent-based stochastic network simulation using a variant of the standard SEIR dynamic infectious disease model. We considered a mask order that was initiated 3.5 months after the first confirmed COVID-19 case. We varied the likelihood of individuals wearing masks from 0-100% in steps of 20% (mask adherence) and considered 25% to 90% mask-related reduction in viral transmission (mask efficacy). Sensitivity analyses assessed early (by week 13) versus late (by week 42) adoption of masks and geographic differences in adherence (highest in urban and lowest in rural areas).

Results: Introduction of mask use with 50% efficacy worn by 50% of individuals reduces the cumulative infection attack rate (IAR) by 27%, the peak prevalence by 49%, and population-wide mortality by 29%. If 90% of individuals wear 50% efficacious masks, this decreases IAR by 54%, peak prevalence by 75%, and population-wide mortality by 55%; similar improvements hold if 70% of individuals wear 75% efficacious masks. Late adoption reduces IAR and deaths by 18% or more compared to no adoption. Lower adoption in rural areas than urban would lead to rural areas having the highest IAR.

Conclusions: Even after community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been established, adoption of mask-wearing by a majority of community-dwelling individuals can meaningfully reduce the number and outcome of COVID-19 infections over and above physical distancing interventions.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest/Competing Interests: There are no conflicts to declare.

Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:
Prevalence of infectious people over time is shown. Subfigure (top) shows prevalence of cases with different levels of population adherence (25%, 50%, 75%, 90%) while mask efficacy is 50%. Subfigure (middle) shows prevalence with different levels of mask efficacy (25%, 50%, 75%, 90) while population adherence is 70%. Subfigure (bottom) shows prevalence with different levels of population adherence under late adoption of masks.
Figure 2:
Figure 2:
Infection Fatality Rates for areas categorized by urban, rural, and suburban status, where the band is ± 2 standard deviations around the daily mean for all areas in that category across all replications. Mask adherence is shown for 0% adherence, 50% across all areas with early adoption, and two scenarios of differing adherence levels by early and late timing.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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