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. 2020 Nov 13;117(46):790-791.
doi: 10.3238/arztebl.2020.0790.

Case Numbers Beyond Contact Tracing Capacity Are Endangering the Containment of COVID-19

Matthias Linden, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian B Mohr, Jan Mohring, Michael Meyer-Hermann, Iris Pigeot, Anita Schöbel, Viola Priesemann

Case Numbers Beyond Contact Tracing Capacity Are Endangering the Containment of COVID-19

Matthias Linden et al. Dtsch Arztebl Int. .
No abstract available

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Figures

Figure
Figure
The number of weekly COVID-19 cases (left), and the number of predicted and actual COVID-19-associated deaths are displayed for each age group (middle). The observed number of deaths (black) in each age group corresponds quite well to the predicted deaths calculated from the case numbers (color) using an age-dependent infection-fatality rate from a meta-analysis (4). Despite a rise in total reported cases since mid July (bottom), cases in the older age groups only started to rise in September (blue arrows). As a consequence, a rise in deaths is expected to unfold soon (right). The forecast scenarios A and B (gray, right column) predict a further increase in case numbers and deaths.
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References

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