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. 2021 Jan 28;104(4):1519-1525.
doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-1499.

The Impact of Preparedness in Defying COVID-19 Pandemic Expectations in the Lower Mekong Region: A Case Study

Andrew Corwin  1 , Tanarak Plipat  2 , Rattanaxay Phetsouvanh  3 , Mayfong Mayxay  4   5 , Phonepadith Xangsayarath  6 , Le Thi Quynh Mai  7 , Sophal Oum  8 , Md Abdul Kuddus  9   10
Affiliations

The Impact of Preparedness in Defying COVID-19 Pandemic Expectations in the Lower Mekong Region: A Case Study

Andrew Corwin et al. Am J Trop Med Hyg. .

Abstract

Dire COVID-19 expectations in the Lower Mekong Region (LMR) can be understood as Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam have stared down a succession of emerging infectious disease (EID) threats from neighboring China. Predictions that the LMR would be overwhelmed by a coming COVID-19 tsunami were felt well before the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had been declared. And yet, the LMR, excepting Myanmar, has proved surprisingly resilient in keeping COVID-19 contained to mostly sporadic cases. Cumulative case rates (per one million population) for the LMR, including or excluding Myanmar, from January 1 to October 31 2020, are 1,184 and 237, respectively. More telling are the cumulative rates of COVID-19-attributable deaths for the same period of time, 28 per million with and six without Myanmar. Graphics demonstrate a flattening of pandemic curves in the LMR, minus Myanmar, after managing temporally and spatially isolated spikes in case counts, with negligible follow-on community spread. The comparable success of the LMR in averting pandemic disaster can likely be attributed to years of preparedness investments, triggered by avian influenza A (H5N1). Capacity building initiatives applied to COVID-19 containment included virological (influenza-driven) surveillance, laboratory diagnostics, field epidemiology training, and vaccine preparation. The notable achievement of the LMR in averting COVID-19 disaster through to October 31, 2020 can likely be credited to these preparedness measures.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Snapshot of early COVID-19 spread in Asia, with numbers reflecting country cumulative case counts, as of February 3, 2020; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html. This figure appears in color at www.ajtmh.org.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
COVID-19 case counts (expressed as Logarithm [Log] values) and incidence rates (per one million population) in the Lower Mekong Region, excepting for Myanmar, January through October 2020.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
COVID-19 case counts (expressed as Logarithm [Log] values) and incidence rates (per one million population) in Myanmar, January through October 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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