National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to identify inpatient COVID-19 deterioration: a retrospective analysis

Abstract

Introduction: We sought to provide the first report of the use of NEWS2 monitoring to pre-emptively identify clinical deterioration within hospitalised COVID-19 patients.

Methods: Consecutive adult admissions with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 were included in this single-centre retrospective UK cohort study. We analysed all electronic clinical observations recorded within 28 days of admission until discharge or occurrence of a serious event, defined as any of the following: initiation of respiratory support, admission to intensive care, initiation of end of life care, or in-hospital death.

Results: 133/296 (44.9%) patients experienced at least one serious event. NEWS2 ≥ 5 heralded the first occurrence of a serious event with sensitivity 0.98 (95% CI 0.96-1.00), specificity 0.28 (0.21-0.35), positive predictive value (PPV) 0.53 (0.47-0.59), and negative predictive value (NPV) 0.96 (0.90-1.00). The NPV (but not PPV) of NEWS2 monitoring exceeded that of other early warning scores including the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) (0.59 [0.52-0.66], p<0.001) and quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (0.58 [0.51-0.65], p<0.001).

Conclusion: Our results support the use of NEWS2 monitoring as a sensitive method to identify deterioration of hospitalised COVID-19 patients, albeit at the expense of a relatively high false-trigger rate.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; deterioration; early warning score; monitoring.

Fig 1.

Exclusion of patients prior to analysis.

Fig 2.

Longitudinal trend in NEWS2 score in the deterioration group prior to occurrence of first serious event. Solid line shows fitted trend (loess regression), grey shading depicts 95% confidence intervals, dashed line shows score trigger threshold.