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. 2021 Feb 9;11(1):3402.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-83062-x.

Sea surface temperature variability and ischemic heart disease outcomes among older adults

Haris Majeed  1   2 , Rahim Moineddin  3   4 , Gillian L Booth  5   6   4   7
Affiliations

Sea surface temperature variability and ischemic heart disease outcomes among older adults

Haris Majeed et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. While extreme summer surface air temperatures are thought to be a risk factor for IHD, it is unclear whether large-scale climate patterns also influence this risk. This multi-national population-based study investigated the association between summer Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability and annual acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or IHD event rates among older adults residing in North America and the United Kingdom. Overall, a shift from cool to warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was associated with reduced AMI admissions in western Canada (adjusted rate ratio [RR] 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-0.99), where this climate pattern predominatly forces below-normal cloud cover and precipitation during summertime, and increased AMI deaths in western United States (RR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.15), where it forces increased cloud cover and precipitation. Whereas, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during a strong positive phase was associated with reduced AMI admissions in eastern Canada (RR 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98) and increased IHD mortality during summer months in the United Kingdom (RR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.14). These findings suggest that SST variability can be used to predict changes in cardiovascular event rates in regions that are susceptible.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Summer ENSO and AMO Impact on Surface Air Temperatures and Cloud Cover. (A) Average summer surface air temperature (°C) and (B) cloud cover (%) anomalies during El Niño phases in 2002, 2009, 2015. (C) Average summer surface air temperature (°C) and (D) cloud cover (%) anomalies during La Niña phases in 2000, 2010, 2011. (E) Average summer surface air temperature (°C) and (F) cloud cover anomalies (%) during positive AMO phase in 2003, 2005, 2010. (G) Average summer surface air temperature (°C) and (H) cloud cover anomalies during negative AMO phase in 2002, 2013, 2015. Anomalies are based on the reference period of 1981–2010. The ERA5 dataset was used in MATLAB R2017b (https://www.mathworks.com/products/matlab.html).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Association between ENSO categories and acute myocardial infarction-related mortality (United States) and admission (Canada) rates for older adults, 2000–2015.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Association between AMO categories and acute myocardial infarction-related mortality (United States) and admission (Canada) rates for older adults, 2000–2015.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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