Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Randomized Controlled Trial
. 2021 Aug;23(8):1346-1356.
doi: 10.1002/ejhf.2120. Epub 2021 Mar 9.

Dynamic changes in cardiovascular and systemic parameters prior to sudden cardiac death in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a PARADIGM-HF analysis

Luis E Rohde  1   2 , Muthiah Vaduganathan  1 , Brian L Claggett  1 , Carisi A Polanczyk  1   2 , Pranav Dorbala  1 , Milton Packer  3 , Akshay S Desai  1 , Michael Zile  4 , Jean Rouleau  5 , Karl Swedberg  6 , Martin Lefkowitz  7 , Victor Shi  7 , John J V McMurray  8 , Scott D Solomon  1
Affiliations
Free article
Randomized Controlled Trial

Dynamic changes in cardiovascular and systemic parameters prior to sudden cardiac death in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a PARADIGM-HF analysis

Luis E Rohde et al. Eur J Heart Fail. 2021 Aug.
Free article

Abstract

Aims: Prognostic models of sudden cardiac death (SCD) typically incorporate data at only a single time-point. We investigated independent predictors of SCD addressing the impact of integrating time-varying covariates to improve prediction assessment.

Methods and results: We studied 8399 patients enrolled in the PARADIGM-HF trial and identified independent predictors of SCD (n = 561, 36% of total deaths) using time-updated multivariable-adjusted Cox models, classification and regression tree (CART), and logistic regression analysis. Compared with patients who were alive or died from non-sudden cardiovascular deaths, patients who suffered a SCD displayed a distinct temporal profile of New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, heart rate and levels of three biomarkers (albumin, uric acid and total bilirubin), with significant differences observed more than 1 year prior to the event (Pinteraction < 0.001). In multivariable models adjusted for baseline covariates, seven time-updated variables independently contributed to SCD risk (incremental likelihood chi-square = 46.2). CART analysis identified that baseline variables (implantable cardioverter-defibrillator use and N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide levels) and time-updated covariates (NYHA class, total bilirubin, and total cholesterol) improved risk stratification. CART-defined subgroup of highest risk had nearly an eightfold increment in SCD hazard (hazard ratio 7.7, 95% confidence interval 3.6-16.5; P < 0.001). Finally, changes over time in heart rate, NYHA class, blood urea nitrogen and albumin levels were associated with differential risk of sudden vs. non-sudden cardiovascular deaths (P < 0.05).

Conclusions: Beyond single time-point assessments, distinct changes in multiple cardiac-specific and systemic variables improved SCD risk prediction and were helpful in differentiating mode of death in chronic heart failure.

Keywords: Clinical predictors; Heart failure; Sudden cardiac death.

PubMed Disclaimer

Comment in

References

    1. MERIT-HF Investigators. Effect of metoprolol CR/XL in chronic heart failure: Metoprolol CR/XL Randomised Intervention Trial in Congestive Heart Failure (MERIT-HF). Lancet 1999;353:2001-2007.
    1. Shen L, Jhund PS, Petrie MC, Claggett BL, Barlera S, Cleland JGF, Dargie HJ, Granger CB, Kjekshus J, Køber L, Latini R, Maggioni AP, Packer M, Pitt B, Solomon SD, Swedberg K, Tavazzi L, Wikstrand J, Zannad F, Zile MR, McMurray JJ. Declining risk of sudden death in heart failure. N Engl J Med 2017;377:41-51.
    1. McMurray JJ, Ostergren J, Swedberg K, Granger CB, Held P, Michelson EL, Olofsson B, Yusuf S, Pfeffer MA; CHARM Investigators and Committees. Effects of candesartan in patients with chronic heart failure and reduced left-ventricular systolic function taking angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors: the CHARM-Added trial. Lancet 2003;362:767-771.
    1. Tavazzi L, Maggioni AP, Marchioli R, Barlera S, Franzosi MG, Latini R, Lucci D, Nicolosi GL, Porcu M, Tognoni G; GISSI-HF Investigators. Effect of rosuvastatin in patients with chronic heart failure (the GISSI-HF trial): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Lancet 2008;372:1231-1239.
    1. Zannad F, McMurray JJ, Krum H, van Veldhuisen DJ, Swedberg K, Shi H, Vincent J, Pocock SJ, Pitt B; EMPHASIS-HF Study Group. Eplerenone in patients with systolic heart failure and mild symptoms. N Engl J Med 2011;364:11-21.

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources