One-hour plasma glucose concentration can identify elderly Chinese male subjects at high risk for future type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 20-year retrospective and prospective study

Abstract

Aim: There have been few reports regarding the association between 1 h-PG concentration and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the elderly. This study was performed to assess the efficacy of 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG values in predicting future risk of T2DM in elderly.

Methods: The study population consisted of 928 male volunteers ≥ 55 years old without diabetes who were involved in a retrospective-prospective cohort study over 20 years with a baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and OGTT that included measurement of 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG. The predictive capabilities of FPG and 1 h-PG, 2 h-PG values obtained during OGTT alone and added to a clinical prediction model consisting of traditional diabetes risk factors were assessed.

Results: Overall, 577 of all the 928 study participants (62%) developed T2DM over the 20-year follow-up. 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG values predicted T2DM and remained independent predictors of T2DM after adjusting for various traditional risk factors [HR = 1.269 (95% CI = 1.214-1.327), P < 0.001; HR = 1.269 (95% CI = 1.179-1.366), P < 0.001, respectively]. C-statistics for 1-h PG (C-statistics 0.794 [95% CI 0.765-0.823]) was significantly greater than that for 2-h PG (C-statistic 0.747 [95% CI 0.716-0.779]) in models adjusting for various traditional risk factors. 1 h-PG had the greatest area under the ROC curve (AUC, 0.766), which was greater than that of 2 h-PG (0.719).

Conclusions: 1 h-PG is useful as a predictor of future development of T2DM independently of traditional risk factors in an elderly Chinese male population.

Keywords: Elderly male population; OGTT; One-hour plasma glucose concentration; Prediction; Type 2 diabetes mellitus.