Child-to-adult body mass index trajectories and the risk of subclinical renal damage in middle age

Abstract

Background: Although it is well established that obesity is a risk factor for chronic kidney disease, the impact of distinct long-term body mass index (BMI) developmental patterns on renal function in later life is poorly understood.

Methods: This study utilized data derived from the Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Cohort, a prospective cohort followed over 30 years. We used latent class growth mixture modeling method to identify the BMI trajectories of participants who had received BMI measurements at least three times from childhood (age: 6-15 years) to adulthood (age: 36-45 years). The modified Poisson regression model was used to identify potential associations between BMI trajectories and subclinical renal damage (SRD) in midlife.

Results: Within a total of 2162 individuals, we identified four distinct long-term BMI trajectories: stable normal (54.72%), moderately increasing overweight (32.42%), resolving (10.27%), and progressively increasing obese (2.59%). By the latest follow-up in 2017, a total of 257 (13.1%) individuals were diagnosed with SRD. Compared with the stable normal group, the moderately increasing overweight group and the progressively increasing obese group exhibited significantly a higher urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and a higher odd of existing SRD in 2017 (risk ratio [RR], 1.70 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.33-2.19] and 4.35 [95% CI, 3.00-6.30], respectively). However, individuals who resolved their elevated BMI in early life had a similar risk for SRD as those who had never been obese or overweight (RR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.77-1.79]).

Conclusions: Child-to-adult BMI trajectories that worsen or persist at high levels were associated with an increased risk for SRD in midlife. Maintaining a normal BMI or reversing an elevated BMI in early life may be beneficial to renal function over the long term.