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. 2021 Feb 25;21(1):401.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-10429-0.

Trend analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality, incidence, and mortality-to-incidence ratio: results from global burden of disease study 2017

Maedeh Amini  1 , Farid Zayeri  2 , Masoud Salehi  3
Affiliations

Trend analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality, incidence, and mortality-to-incidence ratio: results from global burden of disease study 2017

Maedeh Amini et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are one of the global leading causes of concern due to the rising prevalence and consequence of mortality and disability with a heavy economic burden. The objective of the current study was to analyze the trend in CVD incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) across the world over 28 years.

Methods: The age-standardized CVD mortality and incidence rates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 for both genders and different world super regions with available data every year during the period 1990-2017. Additionally, the Human Development Index was sourced from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) database for all countries at the same time interval. The marginal modeling approach was implemented to evaluate the mean trend of CVD incidence, mortality, and MIR for 195 countries and separately for developing and developed countries and also clarify the relationship between the indices and Human Development Index (HDI) from 1990 to 2017.

Results: The obtained estimates identified that the global mean trend of CVD incidence had an ascending trend until 1996 followed by a descending trend after this year. Nearly all of the countries experienced a significant declining mortality trend from 1990 to 2017. Likewise, the global mean MIR rate had a significant trivial decrement trend with a gentle slope of 0.004 over the time interval. As such, the reduction in incidence and mortality rates for developed countries was significantly faster than developing counterparts in the period 1990-2017 (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, the developing nations had a more rather shallow decrease in MIR compared to developed ones.

Conclusions: Generally, the findings of this study revealed that there was an overall downward trend in CVD incidence and mortality rates, while the survival rate of CVD patients was rather stable. These results send a satisfactory message that global effort for controlling the CVD burden was quite successful. Nonetheless, there is an urgent need for more efforts to improve the survival rate of patients and lower the burden of this disease in some areas with an increasing trend of either incidence or mortality.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease; Generalized estimating equation methodology; Human development index; Incidence; Marginal model; Mortality; Mortality-to-incidence ratio; Trend.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Mean trends of CVD (a) incidence, (b) mortality, and (c) MIR rates per 100,000 individuals by IHME super regions in the period 1990–2017
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Mean trends of CVD (a) incidence, (b) mortality, and (c) MIR rates per 100,000 individuals by development factor in the period 1990–2017
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Mean Trends of CVD (a) incidence, (b) mortality, and (c) MIR rates per 100,000 individuals for total world countries in the period 1990–2017
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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