Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China

Abstract

African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17-85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets.

Fig. 1. Summary of changes from the reference scenario in pork markets in China and selected regions.

a-c, Changes in pork production in China and selected regions (a), world pork prices (b) and average per capita food demand in China and selected regions (c).

Fig. 2. Summary of changes from the reference scenario in selected commodity markets in China and globally.

a-c, Changes in world prices for selected commodities (a), household food demand (b) and animal feed demand (c).

Fig. 3. Effect of the ASF epidemic on calorie availability and risk of hunger.

a, Percentage change from the reference scenario in average calorie availability in S80. b, Changes in the population at risk of hunger in absolute (bar length) and relative (colour scale) terms by region (left) and selected countries (right) in S80 compared to the reference. DRC, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Fig. 4. Percentage change in average household welfare by region and scenario.

The heat chart uses two colour schemes reflecting the fact that the impacts in China are ten times higher than in other regions. Changes in China are in red and range from 0 (white) to -1% (red). A different scale is used for other regions where blue reflects welfare improvements (up to 0.1%) and orange reflects welfare reductions (up to -0.1%).

Fig. 5. Changes in Chinese pork prices from 31 December 2017 to 6 February 2020.

The data are from the Professional Pig Community (https://www.pig333.com/).