Chasing END TB 2025: Arithmetic needed for logistics!

Abstract

India adopted changes in NTEP (Erstwhile RNTCP, Revised National TB Program, renamed as National TB Elimination Program) in the recent years with an aim to End TB by 2025 way ahead of the global target of ending TB by 2030. It is taking a long time for the changes to trickle down to the grass root level to change the behavior of the ground level force to understand and adopt to the changes that are being ordered and several other changes that are being pushed to the field in tandem. This has made field workers to be on their toes to understand and implement all the changes. The logistics like referral forms, GeneXpert/CBNAAT cartridges, slides etc., required for the program need to be calculated and used as per the changes. Shortages in the procurement or indenting will result in hampering the smooth functioning of the program. Accordingly, we calculated the logistics required for the patients estimated to occur in an area depending on the previous year's patient load. The breakup of the patients was adopted from the available references given. Also, the 2019 data of the load of different type of patients in India and the world were also taken. Total logistics were calculated for two hundred patients. Based on the calculations, a generic formula was derived. When the total number of patients in the previous year/quarter/or any period is N, then below is the formula which can estimate the required logistics for the next similar period.

Keywords: Assumptions for the calculation of logistics; Estimation; Logistics for TB program.