Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Jun;48(3):1871-1877.
doi: 10.1007/s00068-021-01619-x. Epub 2021 Mar 2.

External validation of the Almelo Hip Fracture Score, a prediction model for early mortality following hip fracture surgery

Marinus Anthonie Wesdorp #  1   2 , Sophie Moerman #  3   4 , Anne Jochem Hendrik Vochteloo  5 , Nina Maria Cornelia Mathijssen  3   4
Affiliations

External validation of the Almelo Hip Fracture Score, a prediction model for early mortality following hip fracture surgery

Marinus Anthonie Wesdorp et al. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg. 2022 Jun.

Abstract

Purpose: Early mortality (< 30 days) in hip fracture patients is as high as 9.6%. Several risk assessment tools have been developed to identify patients at high risk for early mortality. Among them, the Almelo Hip Fracture Score (AHFS) was developed recently and showed promising results. Until now, this tool has not been validated; therefore, we aim to perform an external validation of the AHFS.

Methods: On admission, AHFS variables were prospectively collected. The prospectively collected data were used retrospectively to externally validate the AHFS in a cohort of hip fracture patients that were admitted to a hospital in Delft (Delft cohort). The AHFS score was retrospectively calculated for all hip fracture patients meeting the inclusion criteria. The characteristics of the Delft Cohort, AHFS score, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve were calculated and compared to the original Almelo cohort, in which the AHFS was developed.

Results: 422 patients of 70 years and older were included. Mortality within 30 days was 7.6% and similar to the 7.5% observed in the Almelo cohort. For the high-risk cut-off point, specificity was 95.4% in the Delft Cohort vs. 92.5% in the Almelo Cohort, and sensitivity for the low-risk cut-off point was 75.9 vs. 78.1% in the Almelo Cohort. The area under the ROC curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.60-0.79) compared to 0.82 in the Almelo cohort.

Conclusions: The validity of the score was acceptable and comparable to the values in the Almelo cohort. This score might be used to identify patients at high risk for early mortality.

Keywords: Frail elderly; Hip fractures; Hip fractures surgery; Mortality; Risk assessment.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

    1. Gullberg B, Johnell O, Kanis JA. World-wide projections for hip fracture. Osteoporos Int. 1997;7(5):407–13. - DOI
    1. Johnell O, Kanis JA. An estimate of the worldwide prevalence and disability associated with osteoporotic fractures. Osteoporos Int. 2006;17(12):1726–33. - DOI
    1. Johnell O, Kanis JA. An estimate of the worldwide prevalence, mortality and disability associated with hip fracture. Osteoporos Int. 2004;15(11):897–902. - DOI
    1. Roche JJ, Wenn RT, Sahota O, Moran CG. Effect of comorbidities and postoperative complications on mortality after hip fracture in elderly people: prospective observational cohort study. BMJ (Clin Res Ed). 2005;331(7529):1374. - DOI
    1. Grigoryan KV, Javedan H, Rudolph JL. Orthogeriatric care models and outcomes in hip fracture patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Orthop Trauma. 2014;28(3):e49-55. - DOI

LinkOut - more resources