Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Mar;9(1):e001065.
doi: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-001065.

Lifetime risk and years lost to type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Denmark, 1996-2016

Bendix Carstensen  1 , Pernille Falberg Rønn  1 , Marit Eika Jørgensen  2   3
Affiliations

Lifetime risk and years lost to type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Denmark, 1996-2016

Bendix Carstensen et al. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. 2021 Mar.

Abstract

Introduction: Lifetime risk and lifetime lost to diabetes are measures of current diabetes burden in a population. We aimed at quantifying these measures in the Danish population.

Research design and methods: We modeled incidence and mortality of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) and non-diabetes mortality based on complete follow-up of the entire population of Denmark in 1996-2016. A multistate model with these transition rates was used to assess the lifetime risk of diabetes, as well as the difference in expected lifetime between persons with type 1 and T2D and persons without.

Results: In 2016, the lifetime risk of T1D was 1.1% and that for T2D 24%, the latter a 50% increase from 1996. For 50-year-old persons, the lifetime lost was 6.6 years for T1D and 4.8 years for T2D. These figures have been declining over the study period.At 2016, the total foreseeable lives lost in Denmark among patients with T1D were 182 000 years, and those among patients with T2D were 766 000 years, corresponding to 6.6 and 3.0 years per person, respectively.

Conclusion: At the individual level, improvements in the disease burden for both T1D and T2D have occurred. At the population level, the increasing number of patients with T2D has contributed to a large increase in the total loss of lifetime.

Keywords: epidemiology; mortality; registries.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: BC and MEJ own shares in NovoNordisk. BC has received lecture and consultancy fees from NovoNordisk and LeoPharma. MEJ is principal investigator on a trial sponsored by AstraZeneca and received research grants from AMGEN AB, AstraZeneca, Sanofi Aventis and Boehringer Ingelheim. PFR has nothing to disclose.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Lifetime risk of T1D and T2D by sex and date of reference. The calculations are based on annual estimated cross-sectional incidence and mortality rates from age–period–cohort models for incidence and mortality. Blue curves are men, red curves women; dotted lines T1D, full lines T2D. T1D, type 1 diabetes; T2D, type 2 diabetes.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Years of life lost to T1D and T2D in January 1, 2004, 2007, …, 2016, by sex. The calculations are based on annual estimated cross-sectional incidence and mortality rates from age–period–cohort models for incidence and mortality. M, men; T1D, type 1 diabetes; T2D, type 2 diabetes; W, women.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Narayan KMV, Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, et al. . Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States. JAMA 2003;290:1884–90. 10.1001/jama.290.14.1884 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Gregg EW, Zhuo X, Cheng YJ, et al. . Trends in lifetime risk and years of life lost due to diabetes in the USA, 1985-2011: a modelling study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2014;2:867–74. 10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70161-5 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Livingstone SJ, Levin D, Looker HC, et al. . Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010. JAMA 2015;313:37–44. 10.1001/jama.2014.16425 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Leung M-YM, Pollack LM, Colditz GA, et al. . Life years lost and lifetime health care expenditures associated with diabetes in the U.S., National health interview survey, 1997-2000. Diabetes Care 2015;38:460–8. 10.2337/dc14-1453 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Wright AK, Kontopantelis E, Emsley R, et al. . Life expectancy and cause-specific mortality in type 2 diabetes: a population-based cohort study quantifying relationships in ethnic subgroups. Diabetes Care 2017;40:338–45. 10.2337/dc16-1616 - DOI - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources