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. 2021;9(4):1351-1357.
doi: 10.1007/s40435-021-00770-y. Epub 2021 Mar 3.

Possibility of long-termed prediction of NACPs and NADPs of COVID-19 in different countries and regions via tanh basic functions

Lijun Pei  1 , Hongyang Zhang  1
Affiliations

Possibility of long-termed prediction of NACPs and NADPs of COVID-19 in different countries and regions via tanh basic functions

Lijun Pei et al. Int J Dyn Control. 2021.

Abstract

In this paper, we make long-termed prediction for numbers of accumulative confirmed patients (NACPs) and numbers of accumulative death patients (NADPs) of COVID-19 in different countries and regions by fitting method. We use hyperbolic tangent functions as basic functions for the fitting method. The results indicate that it is possible to make long-termed prediction for NACPs and NADPs of COVID-19 by using a small amount of data. And we can estimate the arrival times of the plateau phases of COVID-19 in some countries and regions. It shows that our method is simple (model-free) and very effective in long-termed prediction of NACPs and NADPs with small data.

Keywords: COVID-19; Long-termed prediction; NACP; NADP; Plateau phase.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestThe authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Red dots represent the known NACP, blue line is the predicted NACP, green dots represent true values of NACP. (Color figure online)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Red dots represent the known NACP, blue line is the predicted NACP, green dots represent true values of NACP. (Color figure online)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Red dots represent the known NADP, blue line is the predicted NADP, green dots represent true values of NADP. (Color figure online)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Red dots represent the known NADP, blue line is the predicted NADP, green dots represent true values of NADP. (Color figure online)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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