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. 2021 Mar 11;21(1):50.
doi: 10.1186/s12874-021-01244-7.

Outbreaks of publications about emerging infectious diseases: the case of SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus

Aziz Mert Ipekci  1 , Diana Buitrago-Garcia  1   2 , Kaspar Walter Meili  3 , Fabienne Krauer  4 , Nirmala Prajapati  5 , Shabnam Thapa  6 , Lea Wildisen  7 , Lucia Araujo-Chaveron  5 , Lukas Baumann  8 , Sanam Shah  5 , Tessa Whiteley  5 , Gonzalo Solís-García  9 , Foteini Tsotra  10 , Ivan Zhelyazkov  10 , Hira Imeri  1 , Nicola Low  1 , Michel Jacques Counotte  11
Affiliations

Outbreaks of publications about emerging infectious diseases: the case of SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus

Aziz Mert Ipekci et al. BMC Med Res Methodol. .

Abstract

Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases generate outbreaks of scientific evidence. In 2016 epidemics of Zika virus emerged, and in 2020, a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We compared patterns of scientific publications for the two infections to analyse the evolution of the evidence.

Methods: We annotated publications on Zika virus and SARS-CoV-2 that we collected using living evidence databases according to study design. We used descriptive statistics to categorise and compare study designs over time.

Results: We found 2286 publications about Zika virus in 2016 and 21,990 about SARS-CoV-2 up to 24 May 2020, of which we analysed a random sample of 5294 (24%). For both infections, there were more epidemiological than laboratory science studies. Amongst epidemiological studies for both infections, case reports, case series and cross-sectional studies emerged first, cohort and case-control studies were published later. Trials were the last to emerge. The number of preprints was much higher for SARS-CoV-2 than for Zika virus.

Conclusions: Similarities in the overall pattern of publications might be generalizable, whereas differences are compatible with differences in the characteristics of a disease. Understanding how evidence accumulates during disease outbreaks helps us understand which types of public health questions we can answer and when.

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Conflict of interest statement

The funders of this study had no role in the study design, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all of the data and final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The global number of reported cases (a), and the number publications (b) by week for SARS-CoV-2 infections in 2020 and Zika virus infections (ZIKV) in 2016. In panel B, the dashed grey boxes contain the period and number of publications for which the study design was annotated. The vertical scales differ for each infection. SARS-CoV-2: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Proportions of different study designs of published research on SARS-CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Zika virus (Zika virus) over time. Epidemiological, basic, and “non-original” research (a); epidemiological research by study design (b). For display purposes SARS-CoV-2 data is shown by week and Zika virus data by month. SARS-CoV-2: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; PHEIC: Public Health Emergency of International Concern
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Time to the first 20 publications in a study design, for SARS-CoV-2 infections (SARS-CoV-2) and Zika virus infections (Zika virus). SARS-CoV-2: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; PHEIC: Public Health Emergency of International Concern
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The proportion of preprint publications and peer-reviewed publications for SARS-CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Zika virus (Zika virus) research over time (a) and by study design for SARS-CoV-2 (b). SARS-CoV-2: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
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