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. 2021 Sep;31(5):1-8.
doi: 10.1002/rmv.2224. Epub 2021 Mar 13.

Estimating the impact of public health strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2: Epidemiological modelling for Toulouse, France

Chloé Dimeglio  1   2 , Marcel Miedougé  2 , Jean-Michel Loubes  3 , Jean-Michel Mansuy  2 , Jacques Izopet  1   2
Affiliations

Estimating the impact of public health strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2: Epidemiological modelling for Toulouse, France

Chloé Dimeglio et al. Rev Med Virol. 2021 Sep.

Abstract

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the resulting disease COVID-19 has killed over 2 million people as of 22 January 2021. We have used a modified susceptible, infected, recovered epidemiological model to predict how the spread of the virus in France will vary depending on the public health strategies adopted, including anti-COVID-19 vaccination. Our prediction model indicates that the French authorities' adoption of a gradual release from lockdown could lead in March 2021 to a virus prevalence similar to that before lockdown. However, a massive vaccination campaign initiated in January 2021 and the continuation of public health measures over several months could curb the spread of virus and thus relieve the load on hospitals.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; public health; statistical model.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Daily dynamics of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, 21 July 2020 to 14 March 2021: influence of lockdown strategies
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
(a) Daily spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, 21 July 2020 to 5 May 2021 depending on the containment strategy. (b) Cumulative SARS‐CoV‐2 seroprevalence in the Toulouse urban area from 21 July 2020 to 5 May 2021
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Daily spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, 21 July 2020 to 5 May 2021 according to the vaccination strategy
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Daily spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, 21 July 2020 to 9 October 2021 depending on the vaccine strategy and the release of public health measures: (a) 7500 people vaccinated per week from 1 January 2021; (b) 8500 people vaccinated per week from 1 January 2021
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