Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.

Keywords: Anthropocene; Biodiversity; Biosphere stewardship; Climate; Resilience; Social-ecological.

Fig. 1

The home of humankind. Our economies, societies, and civilizations are embedded in the Biosphere, the thin layer of life on planet Earth. There is a dynamic interplay between the living biosphere and the broader Earth system, with the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere, the cryosphere, and the climate system. Humans have become a major force in shaping this interplay. Artwork by J. Lokrantz, Azote

Fig. 2

A snapshot of the interconnected globalized world, showing the human influence in terms of settlements, roads, railways, air routes, shipping lanes, fishing efforts, submarine cables, and transmission lines (Credit: Globaïa). Reprinted with permission

Fig. 3

The Holocene epoch and Earth’s resilience. A) Vostok ice-core data, Antarctica, from the last 100 000 years in relation to human migration and civilization. The red circle marks the last 11 000 years of the accommodating Holocene epoch. B) Global temperature the last 3 million years oscillating within + 2 °C and -6 °C relative to pre-industrial temperature (the 0 line). Observations from ice-core and tree ring proxy data in black and modelling results in blue reflecting interactions between the biosphere and the broader Earth system. Evidence suggests that current levels of anthropogenic warming have forced the Earth system out of the Holocene climate conditions into the Anthropocene. There is increasing consensus that pushing the Earth system to more than 2 °C warming compared to pre-industrial levels constitutes unknown terrain for contemporary societies and a threat to civilization (Steffen et al. 2018). Figure 3A by W. Steffen, source and data from Petit et al. (1999) and Oppenheimer (2004). Figure 3B adapted from Willeit et al., Sci. Adv. 2019; 5 : eaav7337. © The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee AAAS. Distributed under a CC BY 4.0 license

Fig. 4

Tipping elements central in regulating the state of the planet, and identified interactions among them that, for humanity, could cause serious cascading effects and even challenge planetary stability (based on Steffen et al. ; Lenton et al. 2019). In addition, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, tropical cyclones, ocean heat waves, and sea level rise are challenging human wellbeing (Pörtner et al. 2019)

Fig. 5

Biodiversity plays significant roles in biosphere resilience. Puma, Kay Pacha 2017, painting, and courtesy of Angela Leible

Fig. 6

The nine identified planetary boundaries. The green zone is the safe-operating space (below the boundary), yellow represents the zone of uncertainty (increasing risk), and red is the high-risk zone. In these potentially dangerous zones of increasing risk, there are likely continental and global tipping points for some of the boundaries, although not for all them. The planetary boundary itself lies at the inner heavy circle. A proposed boundary does not represent a tipping point or a threshold but is placed upstream of it, that is, well before the risk of crossing a critical threshold. The intent of this buffer between the boundary and a potential threshold in the dangerous zone is to allow society time to react to early warning signs of approaching abrupt or risky change. Processes for which global-level boundaries are not quantified are represented by grey wedges (adapted from Steffen et al. 2015). Reprinted with permission

Fig. 7

Examples of pathways of interactions between inequality and the biosphere in intertwined systems of people and nature (adapted from Hamann et al. 2018). Reprinted with permission

Fig. 8

Alternative social-ecological development pathways over time, navigated by efforts like the SDGs and emergent outcomes for equity and sustainability, with an “equitable sustainability space” highlighted (adapted from Leach et al. 2018). Reprinted with permission

Fig. 9

The transformation process. A social innovation, a seed, matures to the extent that the initiative becomes prepared for change. And when change happens, when the window-of-opportunity unlocks at broader levels of governance, often in relation to a shock or disturbance, the new initiative can be skilfully navigated through the window and transitioned into a new development pathway, making it possible to transform the governance system and start building resilience of the new situation and taking it to scale (based on Olsson et al. , Geels et al. and adapted from Pereira et al. 2018b). Reprinted with permission

Fig. 10

A Roadmap for Rapid Decarbonization—without deep emissions cuts the world takes a high-risk strategy (currently the default strategy) of over-reliance on risky negative emissions technologies in the near future. Avoiding this trap means cutting emissions by half every decade—the Carbon Law trajectory. Meeting the Paris Agreement goals will require bending the global curve of CO₂ emissions by 2020 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. It furthermore depends on rising anthropogenic carbon sinks, by transitioning world agriculture from a major carbon source (red) to become a major carbon sink by the 2nd half of this century, carbon sinks from bioenergy and other forms of carbon capture and storage (BECCS), engineering (grey) and land use (light blue), as well as sustained biosphere carbon sinks, to stabilize global temperatures. Green represents natural carbon sinks, which will shrink as emissions decrease (adapted from Rockström et al. 2017). Reprinted with permission

Fig. 11

Reconfiguring the human–nature relationship over time (adapted from Mace 2014). Reprinted with permission

Fig. 12

Collaborative implementation of priority interventions (levers) targeting key points of intervention (leverage points representing major indirect drivers) could enable transformative change from current trends towards more sustainable ones. Effectively addressing these levers and leverage points requires innovative governance approaches and organizing the process around nexuses, representing closely interdependent and complementary goals (adapted from Diaz et al. 2018). Reprinted with permission