The future is old - Patients with topical ocular hypotensive treatment in the Nordic region between 2008 and 2017 with projections for 2040

Abstract

Purpose: The primary objective was to evaluate prescribing trends for topical ocular hypotensive treatment in the Nordic region during the last decade and, by population projections, estimate the glaucoma burden in 2040. A secondary objective was to analyse national variations in prescription patterns across the Nordic region.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of national pharmacy data between 2008 and 2017 on the dispensation of topical ocular hypotensive treatment in the Nordic region was performed. Predictions of the glaucoma burden in 2040 were calculated from official population projections.

Results: The total number of patients with ocular hypotensive treatment in the Nordic region increased from 346 000 to 418 000 (21%) between 2008 and 2017. The number of patients with ocular hypotensive treatment in the age group of 50 years and older increased from 3.6% to 3.9%. The daily defined dose (DDD) per patient and day during the study period increased from 1.22 to 1.26. Adjusted for beta-blocker combinations, the same value increased from 1.49 to 1.67. Across the Nordic countries, Finland had almost twice as many DDD per patient and day in 2017 (2.1) compared with Iceland (1.1). Between 2008 and 2017, the annual treatment cost for ocular hypotensive treatment in the Nordic region decreased from 96 million to 87 million Euro (-9%). In 2040, the number of patients with ocular hypotensive treatment in the Nordic region is estimated to 633 000 individuals (+51% compared with 2017).

Conclusions: The study revealed an increased use of glaucoma medications in the Nordic region the last decade. This was mainly caused by an increased number of patients with ocular hypotensive treatment, but also because of a more intensive treatment. Marked national differences were detected. Due to the introduction of generic medications, the total cost for ocular hypotensive treatment did however decrease during the last decade. In 2040, the current number of individuals with ocular hypotensive treatment is estimated to have increased with an additional 50% due to a growing number of ageing individuals. This will lead to higher costs, not only for medications but also for diagnosing, monitoring and other aspects of glaucoma care.

Keywords: clinical practice patterns; costs and cost analysis; drug consumption; drug prescriptions; forecasting; glaucoma; ocular hypertension; prevalence.