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. 2021 Apr:23:104018.
doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104018. Epub 2021 Mar 12.

Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt

Othman A M Omar  1 , Reda A Elbarkouky  1 , Hamdy M Ahmed  2
Affiliations

Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt

Othman A M Omar et al. Results Phys. 2021 Apr.

Abstract

In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020. Finally, comparisons between actual and predicted daily infections are presented.

Keywords: COVID-19; Euler-Murayama method; Fractional dynamic models; Stochastic dynamic models.

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Conflict of interest statement

Authors declare that they have no conflict of interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Daily Susceptible individuals for Egypt using different dynamic models.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Daily Exposed individuals for Egypt using different dynamic models.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Daily Infected individuals for Egypt using different dynamic models.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Daily Recovered individuals for Egypt using different dynamic models.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Daily Deaths individuals for Egypt using different dynamic models.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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