Modelling COVID-19

Alessandro Vespignani^{1

2}, Huaiyu Tian³, Christopher Dye⁴, James O Lloyd-Smith⁵, Rosalind M Eggo⁶, Munik Shrestha¹, Samuel V Scarpino¹, Bernardo Gutierrez^{4

7}, Moritz U G Kraemer^{4

8

9}, Joseph Wu¹⁰, Kathy Leung¹⁰, Gabriel M Leung¹⁰

Affiliations

¹ Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
² ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.
³ State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
⁴ Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
⁵ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA.
⁶ Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
⁷ School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador.
⁸ Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA USA.
⁹ Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA USA.
¹⁰ WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.

PMID: 33728401
PMCID: PMC7201389
DOI: 10.1038/s42254-020-0178-4

Review

Modelling COVID-19

Alessandro Vespignani et al. Nat Rev Phys. 2020.

. 2020;2(6):279-281.

doi: 10.1038/s42254-020-0178-4. Epub 2020 May 6.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
² ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.
³ State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
⁴ Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
⁵ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA.
⁶ Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
⁷ School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador.
⁸ Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA USA.
⁹ Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA USA.
¹⁰ WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.

PMID: 33728401
PMCID: PMC7201389
DOI: 10.1038/s42254-020-0178-4

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, mathematical epidemiologists share their views on what models reveal about how the disease has spread, the current state of play and what work still needs to be done.

Keywords: Applied mathematics; Complex networks.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests.

References

1. Tian, H. et al. An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science10.1126/science.abb6105 (2020). - PMC - PubMed
1. Lloyd-Smith JO, Schreiber SJ, Kopp PE, Getz WM. Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature. 2005;438:355–359. doi: 10.1038/nature04153. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Kucharski AJ, Althaus CL. The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission. Eurosurveillance. 2015;20:14–18. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167. - DOI - PubMed
1. Hellewell J, et al. Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts. Lancet Glob. Health. 2020;8:e488–e496. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Kraemer MUG, et al. The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science. 2020;21:eabb4218. - PMC - PubMed

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Modelling COVID-19

Affiliations

Modelling COVID-19

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

References

Publication types

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Other Literature Sources

Research Materials