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. 2021 Mar 18:149:e84.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268821000595.

Female sex workers population size estimation in Rwanda using a three-source capture-recapture method

G Musengimana  1 , E Tuyishime  2 , E Remera  1 , M Dong  3 , D Sebuhoro  1 , A Mulindabigwi  1 , E Kayirangwa  2 , S S Malamba  2 , S Gutreuter  3 , D Prybylski  3 , R H Doshi  3 , C Kayitesi  1 , V Mutarabayire  4 , S Nsanzimana  1 , P Mugwaneza  1
Affiliations

Female sex workers population size estimation in Rwanda using a three-source capture-recapture method

G Musengimana et al. Epidemiol Infect. .

Abstract

Establishing accurate population size estimates (PSE) is important for prioritising and planning provision of services. Multiple source capture-recapture sampling method increases PSE accuracy and reliability. In August 2018, the three-source capture-recapture (3S-CRC) method was employed with a stringent assumption of sample independence to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in Rwanda. Using Rwanda 2017 FSW hotspots mapping data, street and venue-based FSW were sampled at the sector level of each province and tagged with two unique gifts. Each capture was completed within one week to minimise FSW migration between provinces and recall bias. The three captures had 1042, 1204 and 1488 FSW. There were 111 FSW recaptured between captures 1 and 2; 237 between captures 2 and 3; 203 between captures 1 and 3 and 46 captured in all three. The PSE for street and venue-based FSW in Rwanda lies within 95% credible set: 8328-22 806 with corresponding median of 13 716 FSW. The 3S-CRC technique was low-cost and relatively easy to use for PSE in hard-to-reach populations. This estimate provides the basis for determining the denominators to assess HIV programme performance towards FSW and epidemic control and warrants further PSE for home- and cyber-based FSW in Rwanda.

Keywords: Capture−recapture; HIV/AIDS; female sex workers; population size estimation; sub-Saharan Africa.

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Conflict of interest statement

No potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this paper were declared by the authors.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Maps indicating location of FSW hotspots that were visited during survey implementation in captures 1, 2 and 3, respectively.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Venn diagram indicating the overlaps in all captures, total number of captures and recaptures for FSWs in Rwanda, 2018.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
(a) Exploratory heterogeneity graph, (b) sensitivity analysis for prior probability distribution selection.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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