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. 2021 Apr;53(2):316-322.
doi: 10.4143/crt.2021.290. Epub 2021 Mar 17.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2021

Kyu-Won Jung  1   2 , Young-Joo Won  1   2   3 , Seri Hong  1   2 , Hyun-Joo Kong  1   2 , Jeong-Soo Im  4 , Hong Gwan Seo  1   3
Affiliations

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2021

Kyu-Won Jung et al. Cancer Res Treat. 2021 Apr.

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2021 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.

Materials and methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2018 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2019 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2021. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.

Results: In total, 259,999 new cancer cases and 81,567 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2021. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the thyroid, colon and rectum, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.

Conclusion: The incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to gradually decrease. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

Keywords: 2021; Forecasting; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest

Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2021. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2021 in Korea. (A) Men. (B) Women.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2021 in Korea. (A) Men. (B). Women.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Statistics Korea [Internet] Daejeon: Statistics Korea; 2021. [cited 2021 Feb 8]. Available from: http://kosis.kr.
    1. Hong S, Won YJ, Park YR, Jung KW, Kong HJ, Lee ES, et al. Cancer statistics in Korea: incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2017. Cancer Res Treat. 2020;52:335–50. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Shin HR, Won YJ, Jung KW, Kong HJ, Yim SH, Lee JK, et al. Nationwide cancer incidence in Korea, 1999–2001: first result using the National Cancer Incidence Database. Cancer Res Treat. 2005;37:325–31. - PMC - PubMed
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