A global association between Covid-19 cases and airborne particulate matter at regional level

Abstract

Evidences of an association between air pollution and Covid-19 infections are mixed and inconclusive. We conducted an ecological analysis at regional scale of long-term exposure to air-borne particle matter and spread of Covid-19 cases during the first wave of epidemics. Global air pollution and climate data were calculated from satellite earth observation data assimilated into numerical models at 10 km resolution. Main outcome was defined as the cumulative number of cases of Covid-19 in the 14 days following the date when > 10 cumulative cases were reported. Negative binomial mixed effect models were applied to estimate the associations between the outcome and long-term exposure to air pollution at the regional level (PM₁₀, PM_2.5), after adjusting for relevant regional and country level covariates and spatial correlation. In total we collected 237,749 Covid-19 cases from 730 regions, 63 countries and 5 continents at May 30, 2020. A 10 μg/m³ increase of pollution level was associated with 8.1% (95% CI 5.4%, 10.5%) and 11.5% (95% CI 7.8%, 14.9%) increases in the number of cases in a 14 days window, for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ respectively. We found an association between Covid-19 cases and air pollution suggestive of a possible causal link among particulate matter levels and incidence of COVID-19.

Figure 1

Airborne fine particulate matter average levels (μg/m³) population densities and Covid-19 daily cases in the 14 days after outcome date (date when cumulative number of cases = 10; up to May 30, 2020). PM levels refer to mean daily concentrations over 2015–2018.