Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence

Abstract

The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.

Keywords: Climate change; Heat stress; Livestock; Risk; Supply chain; Vulnerability.

Graphical abstract

Fig. 1

Schematic of the interaction among the physical climate system, exposure, and vulnerability producing risk in the livestock supply chain. Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system (left) and socioeconomic processes including adaptation and mitigation (right) are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Adapted from IPCC (2014).

Fig. 2

Potential impacts of climate-related hazards on the livestock land-based food supply chain. The term quantity encompasses here the notions of physical availability of feed and animal products, economic and physical access and stability of these products (availability, access and stability indicators as defined by FAO (2019)). The human livelihood capitals listed follow the sustainable livelihoods framework introduced by Scoones (1998) and thereafter modified (Ellis, 2000). Relevant text sections are provided in brackets.