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. 2021 Mar;26(11):2100256.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.11.2100256.

Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February

Daniel J Grint  1 , Kevin Wing  1 , Elizabeth Williamson  1 , Helen I McDonald  1 , Krishnan Bhaskaran  1 , David Evans  2 , Stephen Jw Evans  1 , Alex J Walker  2 , George Hickman  2 , Emily Nightingale  3 , Anna Schultze  1 , Christopher T Rentsch  1 , Chris Bates  4 , Jonathan Cockburn  4 , Helen J Curtis  2 , Caroline E Morton  2 , Sebastian Bacon  2 , Simon Davy  2 , Angel Ys Wong  1 , Amir Mehrkar  2 , Laurie Tomlinson  1 , Ian J Douglas  1 , Rohini Mathur  1 , Paula Blomquist  5 , Brian MacKenna  2 , Peter Ingelsby  2 , Richard Croker  2 , John Parry  4 , Frank Hester  4 , Sam Harper  4 , Nicholas J DeVito  2 , Will Hulme  2 , John Tazare  1 , Ben Goldacre  2   6 , Liam Smeeth  1   6 , Rosalind M Eggo  1   6
Affiliations

Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February

Daniel J Grint et al. Euro Surveill. 2021 Mar.

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

Keywords: CFR; COVID-19; Case fatality risk; Coronavirus; Mortality; SARS-CoV-2; Variant of concern.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Hazard ratios for death following diagnosis of infection with SARS-CoV-2 VOC vs non-VOC, England, 16 November 2020–5 February (n =184,786)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Excess risk of death by 28 days, SARS-CoV-2 VOC compared with non-VOC infection, England, 16 November 2020–5 February (n =112,979)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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