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. 2021 Mar;9(1):e001989.
doi: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2020-001989.

Time trends in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in the UK 2009-2018: a retrospective cohort study

Kingshuk Pal  1 , Laura Horsfall  2 , Manuj Sharma  2 , Irwin Nazareth  2 , Irene Petersen  2
Affiliations

Time trends in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in the UK 2009-2018: a retrospective cohort study

Kingshuk Pal et al. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. 2021 Mar.

Abstract

Introduction: To describe recent trends in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in people seen in UK general practice.

Research design and methods: A retrospective cohort study using IQVIA Medical Research Data looking at people newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes through primary care registers in the UK between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2018.

Results: A cohort of 426 717 people were clinically diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and 418 656 people met the criteria for a diagnosis of pre-diabetes in that time period. The incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes per 1000 person years at risk (PYAR) in men decreased from a peak of 5.06 per 1000 PYAR (95% CI 4.97 to 5.15) in 2013 to 3.56 per 1000 PYAR (95% CI 3.46 to 3.66) by 2018. For women, the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes per 1000 PYAR decreased from 4.45 (95% CI 4.37 to 4.54) in 2013 to 2.85 (2.76 to 2.93) in 2018. The incidence rate of pre-diabetes tripled by the end of the same study period in men and women.

Conclusions: Between 2009 and 2018, the incidence rate of new clinical diagnoses of type 2 diabetes recorded in a UK primary care database decreased by a third from its peak in 2013-2014, while the incidence of pre-diabetes has tripled. The implications of this on timely treatment, complication rates and mortality need further longer term exploration.

Keywords: Type 2; diabetes mellitus; epidemiology; prediabetic state.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flowchart for patients included in type 2 diabetes cohort.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Incidence rates of clinical diagnosis of type 2 diabetes by calendar year 2009–2018. PYAR, person years at risk.
Figure 3
Figure 3
IRR for being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in different age bands over time compared with age 40–49. IRR, incidence rate ratio.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Incidence rates of diagnosis of pre-diabetes by calendar year 2009–2018. PYAR, person years at risk.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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