Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?

Abstract

Aim: The current study assessed the case fatality rate (CFR) across different income level countries of the world, and the virulence pattern of COVID-19, against the backdrop of panic and uncertainty faced by many governments, who are trying to impose draconian containment measures to control the outbreak. Subjects and Methods: Data on confirmed cases and number of deaths due to coronavirus infection were retrieved from the WHO as on 30 March 2020, and examined for the various income level countries, per the World Bank criteria. The CFR was calculated country-wise and estimated for the various groups such as low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income, and the data was analyzed.

Results: The overall CFR for the high income countries was 5.0%, compared with a CFR of 2.8% for low-income countries. The upper-middle-income countries showed a CFR of 4.3%, while the lower-middle-income countries stood at 3.7%. The results from our study predict that the maximum CFR in high-income countries will be contained at approximately 5% (95% CI). The CFR for the low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries will range between 2.8 and 4.3% (95% CI).

Conclusion: COVID-19, irrespective of its transmissibility, produces a lower CFR compared with that of SARS-Cov and MERS-Cov, although COVID-19 has infected eight times more countries than MERS-Cov and SARS-Cov, and caused a higher number of deaths. The nation-wide lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus may be reconsidered, given the hardships for the population and their impact on the economic system.

Keywords: Control measures; Global picture; Level of income; Novel corona virus; Quarantine.

Fig. 1

Distribution of cases in low and lower-middle-income countries with no mortality

Fig. 2

Distribution of cases in upper-middle and high-income countries with no mortality