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. 2021 Mar:21:100291.
doi: 10.1016/j.wdp.2021.100291.

Moving toward rice self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030: Lessons learned from 10 years of the Coalition for African Rice Development

Aminou Arouna  1 , Irene Akoko Fatognon  1 , Kazuki Saito  1 , Koichi Futakuchi  1
Affiliations

Moving toward rice self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030: Lessons learned from 10 years of the Coalition for African Rice Development

Aminou Arouna et al. World Dev Perspect. 2021 Mar.

Abstract

The Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD) was initiated as a policy framework with the aim of doubling rice production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period from 2008 to 2018. This paper assesses the contribution of the CARD policy to rice production and forecasts the local rice supply and demand to provide a better understanding of the policies needed to attain rice self-sufficiency by 2030. A combination of the autoregressive integrated moving average method and counterfactual approach was adopted using rice statistical data from 23 countries in SSA. The results showed that the contribution of CARD to paddy rice production in 2018 was 10.2 million tons, equivalent to 74% of the target. This contribution resulted from increases in area and yield of 23% and 19%, respectively. However, the yield growth rate was not sustainable in almost two-thirds of countries. Investments in supply-push factors such as fertilizer and irrigation development, which were the focus in the past, have limited effects on rice production. We conclude that sustainable investments in demand-pull factors such as the private-led modern milling sector and contract farming development should be prioritized to achieve rice self-sufficiency in SSA.

Keywords: Demand-pull factors; Rice; Self-sufficiency; Sub-Saharan Africa; Supply-push factors; Sustainable investments.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Africa map with CARD Phase 1 participating countries.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Trend in rice harvested area in the CARD countries (1000 ha).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Trend in rice yield in the CARD countries (t/ha).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Trend of public agricultural expenditures and their growth rate from 2008 to 2018 (USD/ha) Source: https://www.resakss.org/ (accessed 17 July 2020).
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Trend in paddy production in the CARD countries (1000 tons).
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Comparison of the harvested area with the CARD and the counterfactual scenario.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Comparison of the yield with the CARD and the counterfactual scenario.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Comparison of paddy production with the CARD and the counterfactual scenario.
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Comparison of self-sufficiency with the CARD and the counterfactual scenario.
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
Grouping of countries based on CARD impact on production.
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Forecast rice production and consumption by 2030 (1000 tons of milled rice).
Fig. A1
Fig. A1
Validity of the ARIMA model of area prediction.
Fig. A2
Fig. A2
Validity of the ARIMA model of yield prediction.
Fig. A3
Fig. A3
Validity of the ARIMA model of consumption prediction.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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