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Review
. 2020 Dec 16:37:352.
doi: 10.11604/pamj.2020.37.352.25254. eCollection 2020.

Unexpected low burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in sub-Saharan Africa region despite disastrous predictions: reasons and perspectives

Daryl Nzokou Tcheutchoua  1 , Aurel Tiakouang Tankeu  2   3 , Dominic Leandry Wouna Angong  4 , Batakeh Ba Agoons  4 , Nathan Yves Yanwou Nguemnang  1 , Hugues Clotaire Nana Djeunga  3 , Joseph Kamgno  3   4
Affiliations
Review

Unexpected low burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in sub-Saharan Africa region despite disastrous predictions: reasons and perspectives

Daryl Nzokou Tcheutchoua et al. Pan Afr Med J. .

Abstract

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the development of a highly contagious disease called coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Ten months after the onset of the pandemic, America and Europe remain the most affected regions. Initially, experts predicted that Africa, the poorest continent with the most vulnerable population and health system, would be greatly affected by the ongoing outbreak. However, 240days after the first confirmed case, Africa is among the least affected region, with lower than expected incident cases and mortality. In this review, we discuss possible explanations and reasons for this unexpected low burden of COVID-19 in Africa. We focus on the characteristics of the virus, specificities of the sub-Saharan African population and local environment.

Keywords: COVID-19; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2; burden; explanations; reasons; sub-Saharan Africa.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
crude (a) and normalized (b) cumulative COVID-19 cases in WHO regions
Figure 2
Figure 2
crude (a) and normalized (b) cumulative COVID-19 deaths in WHO regions
Figure 3
Figure 3
mortality per 100 thousand individuals by country on the 26/10/2020 (Data from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Figure 4
Figure 4
trained immunity antiviral host defense (adapted from O´Neil et Netea, 2020)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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