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. 2021 Mar 4;18(5):2564.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph18052564.

The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries

Nodjimadji Tamlengar Martial  1 , Sumaira Mubarik  1 , Chuanhua Yu  1
Affiliations

The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries

Nodjimadji Tamlengar Martial et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

The HIV/AIDS incidence rates have decreased in African countries although the rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine the long-term trend of the overall HIV/AIDS incidence rates in four countries of the central region of Africa, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The Age-Period-Cohort statistical model analysis was used to measure the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence rates in each of the four countries. HIV/AIDS incidence rates decreased slowly in Cameroon (CAM), Chad, and Central African Republic (CAR), but considerably in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 1990-2019. HIV/AIDS incidence rates in the four countries were at their peaks in the age group of 25-29 years. According to the age relative risks, individuals aged between 15 and 49 years old are at high risk of HIV/AIDS incidence in the four countries. The period and cohort relative risks have decreased in all four countries. Although CAM recorded an increase of 59.6% in the period relative risks (RRs) between 1990 and 1999, HIV/AIDS incidence has decreased dramatically in all four countries, especially after 2000. The decrease of the period RRs (relative risk) by nearly 20.6-folds and the decrease of the cohort RRs from 147.65 to almost 0.0034 in the DRC made it the country with the most significant decrease of the period and cohort RRs compared to the rest. HIV/AIDS incidence rates are decreasing in each of the four countries. Our study findings could provide solid ground for policymakers to promptly decrease HIV/AIDS incidence by strengthening the prevention policies to eliminate the public health threat of HIV/AIDS by 2030 as one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Keywords: APC model; Cameroon; Central African Republic; Chad; HIV/AIDS incidence; the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Crude incidence rate (CIR) (a) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (b) of HIV/AIDS infection incidence in Cameroon (CAM), Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
HIV/AIDS incidence rates in each age group in Cameroon (CAM) (a), Chad (b), the Central African Republic (c), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (d).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Age relative risks (Age RRs) of HIV/AIDS incidence and their 95% confidence intervals in Cameroon (CAM), Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Period relative risks (period RRs) of HIV/AIDS incidence and their 95% confidence intervals in Cameroon (CAM), the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Cohort relative risks (cohort RRs) HIV/AIDS incidence and their 95% confidence intervals in Cameroon (CAM), the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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