Forecasting major impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on country-driven sectors: challenges, lessons, and future roadmap

Abstract

The pandemic caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has produced a global health calamity that has a profound impact on the way of perceiving the world and everyday lives. This has appeared as the greatest threat of the time for the entire world in terms of its impact on human mortality rate and many other societal fronts or driving forces whose estimations are yet to be known. Therefore, this study focuses on the most crucial sectors that are severely impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular reference to India. Considered based on their direct link to a country's overall economy, these sectors include economic and financial, educational, healthcare, industrial, power and energy, oil market, employment, and environment. Based on available data about the pandemic and the above-mentioned sectors, as well as forecasted data about COVID-19 spreading, four inclusive mathematical models, namely-exponential smoothing, linear regression, Holt, and Winters, are used to analyse the gravity of the impacts due to this COVID-19 outbreak which is also graphically visualized. All the models are tested using data such as COVID-19 infection rate, number of daily cases and deaths, GDP of India, and unemployment. Comparing the obtained results, the best prediction model is presented. This study aims to evaluate the impact of this pandemic on country-driven sectors and recommends some strategies to lessen these impacts on a country's economy.

Keywords: COVID-19 impact; Corona virus; Forecast affect; Mathematical modelling.

Fig. 1

COVID-19 spread worldwide

Fig. 2

Top 20 countries that are affected by COVID-19

Fig. 3

State wise analysis of India for the confirmed cases and number of deaths

Fig. 4

Infected people in top ten populated states in India

Fig. 5

Corona threats in Maharashtra state of India. Modified from [33]

Fig. 6

COVID-19 threats map of India. Modified from [33]

Fig. 7

Detailed classification of chart of major impacts (considered in this study)

Fig. 8

GDP rate of last 5 years of Indian economics

Fig. 9

Death in 2018 due to different communicable diseases in past year

Fig. 10

Total expenditure on health and healthcare sector by Indian government from FY 2014 to 2018

Fig. 11

Impact on different parts of industries in India due to COVID-19 and lockdown. Modified from [38]

Fig. 12

Export income of India from April 2019 to March 2020

Fig. 13

Brent and WTI Crude Oil Spot Price fall down globally [43]

Fig. 14

Energy demand (MU) between 25 March and 31 March 2020 of India [45]

Fig. 15

Share of market sections in total electricity generation 2018–2019

Fig. 16

The average NO2 emission data of five metros cities of India during lockdown. Modified from [51]

Fig. 17

Prediction of daily cases with different models and compared with actual data

Fig. 18

Total infected cases until 14 May 2020 and prediction for next 2 months in India

Fig. 19

Total daily cases encountered until 14 May 2020 and prediction of every day cases encountered in India for next 2 months

Fig. 20

Total deaths encountered until 14 May 2020 and prediction of death encountered in India for next 2 months

Fig. 21

Effect on GDP of India due to COVID-19 attack and prediction of GDP for next 8 quarters

Fig. 22

Effect on unemployment in India from 2013 to 2021. The graph shows quarter result