A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), symptomatically infected (I _s ), asymptomatically infected (I _a ), quarantined (Q), recovered (R), and death (D), respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as R _cvd19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R _cvd19 < 1. On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if R _cvd19 > 1. The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model's analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 1

Flowchart of the formulated model.

Figure 2

Simulation results of the DFEP for model (1) at different initial conditions and parameter values in Table 3 when R_cvd19 = 0.28738 < 1.

Figure 3

Simulation results of the EEP for model (1) at different initial conditions and parameter values in Table 3 when R_cvd19 = 1.40995 > 1.

Figure 4

The result of the model fit.