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. 2021 Apr 13;118(15):e2002324118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2002324118.

Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses

Zoë L Grange  1 , Tracey Goldstein  2 , Christine K Johnson  2 , Simon Anthony  2   3   4   5 , Kirsten Gilardi  2 , Peter Daszak  3 , Kevin J Olival  3 , Tammie O'Rourke  6 , Suzan Murray  7 , Sarah H Olson  8 , Eri Togami  2 , Gema Vidal  2 ; Expert Panel; PREDICT Consortium; Jonna A K Mazet  1 ; University of Edinburgh Epigroup members those who wish to remain anonymous
Collaborators, Affiliations

Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses

Zoë L Grange et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Erratum in

Abstract

The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. We then developed a risk ranking framework and interactive web tool, SpillOver, that estimates a risk score for wildlife-origin viruses, creating a comparative risk assessment of viruses with uncharacterized zoonotic spillover potential alongside those already known to be zoonotic. Using data from testing 509,721 samples from 74,635 animals as part of a virus discovery project and public records of virus detections around the world, we ranked the spillover potential of 887 wildlife viruses. Validating the risk assessment, the top 12 were known zoonotic viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Several newly detected wildlife viruses ranked higher than known zoonotic viruses. Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.

Keywords: disease ecology; emerging infectious disease; public health; wildlife; zoonotic virus.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Expert opinion (n = 65) of the level of risk each factor included in the risk ranking assessment (n = 42) plays in the risk of a new virus spillover from animals to humans.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Schematic outline of the SpillOver risk ranking tool framework and website (https://spillover.global/).
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Virus spillover ranking estimate for PREDICT-CoV-35, including the contribution of a selection of risk factors and its associated data toward the overall spillover risk assessment. Full details are in https://spillover.global.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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