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. 2021 Apr 1;4(4):e214708.
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.4708.

Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040

Lola Rahib  1   2 , Mackenzie R Wehner  3 , Lynn M Matrisian  2 , Kevin T Nead  4
Affiliations

Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040

Lola Rahib et al. JAMA Netw Open. .

Abstract

Importance: Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of trends in cancer incidences and deaths. Estimated projections of cancer incidences and deaths will be important to guide future research funding allocations, health care planning, and health policy efforts.

Objective: To estimate cancer incidences and deaths in the United States to the year 2040.

Design and setting: This cross-sectional study's estimated projection analysis used population growth projections and current population-based cancer incidence and death rates to calculate the changes in incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Cancer-specific incidences and deaths in the US were estimated for the most common cancer types. Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Statistical analyses were performed from July 2020 to February 2021.

Main outcomes and measures: Total cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040.

Results: This study estimated that the most common cancers in 2040 will be breast (364 000 cases) with melanoma (219 000 cases) becoming the second most common cancer; lung, third (208 000 cases); colorectal remaining fourth (147 000 cases); and prostate cancer dropping to the fourteenth most common cancer (66 000 cases). Lung cancer (63 000 deaths) was estimated to continue as the leading cause of cancer-related death in 2040, with pancreatic cancer (46 000 deaths) and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (41 000 deaths) surpassing colorectal cancer (34 000 deaths) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer-related death, respectively. Breast cancer (30 000 deaths) was estimated to decrease to the fifth most common cause of cancer death.

Conclusions and relevance: These findings suggest that there will be marked changes in the landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Estimated Cancer Incidence Based on Demographic Changes and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for the Top 10 Common Cancers
Estimated incidence projections based on demographic change for the most common cancers in male individuals (A), female individuals (B), and in male individuals and female individuals combined (C). Estimated incidence projections based on demographic change and AAPC in incidence rates for the most common cancers in male individuals (D), female individuals (E), and in male individuals and female individuals combined (F).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. Estimated Cancer Deaths Based on Demographic Changes and Average Annual Percentage Change in Death Rates
Estimated projections of cancer deaths based on demographic changes and average annual percentage change for male individuals (A), female individuals (B), and male and female individuals combined (C).
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. Estimated Cancer Incidences and Death Among Both Male and Female Individuals Aged 20 to 49 Years for the Most Common Cancers and Causes of Cancer Death
Projected incidences based on demographic change and average annual percentage change in incidence rates for the most common cancers (A) and projected cancer deaths based on demographic changes and average annual percentage change in death rates (B).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. United States Census Bureau. 2017 National population projections datasets. Published 2017. Accessed March 4, 2021. https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2017/demo/popproj/2017-popproj.html
    1. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program . SEER*Stat Database: Incidence - SEER 21 Regs Limited-Field Research Data + Hurricane Katrina Impacted Louisiana Cases with Delay-Adjustment, Malignant Only, Nov 2018 Sub (2000-2016) <Katrina/Rita Population Adjustment> - Linked To County Attributes - Total U.S., 1969-2017 Counties, National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Released April 2019. Accessed March 4, 2021. https://seer.cancer.gov/data-software/documentation/seerstat/nov2019/

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