Should serial monitoring of procalcitonin be done routinely in critically ill patients of ICU: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition with dysregulated host response to infection. It is a major determinant of mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU). Procalcitonin (PCT) is widely investigated for prognosis in patients with sepsis. Most of the studies have cited that elevated PCT concentrations and PCT non-clearance are associated with poor outcomes in patients with sepsis and some studies have cited as having no additional benefit. Most of the studies have evaluated single PCT measurement and correlated with prognosis and outcome in septic patients. Limited literature is there about serial PCT levels and its impact on the outcome of patients with sepsis. We searched literature through PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge, and the Cochrane Library from 2007 to 2017 and present a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating the utility of serial measurement of PCT for prognosis in critically ill patients. Articles that assessed PCT non-clearance as a marker of mortality data were included. The primary objective of this meta-analysis was to pool the results of all the available studies on serial PCT non-clearance as a mortality predictor and formulate overall area under receiver operating curve (AUROC). To find out the overall proportion of mortality in PCT non-clearance was our secondary objective. To detect the mortality using PCT non-clearance, ROC curve analysis was done. Area under curve (AUC) of the studies was varying between 0.52 and 0.86. Overall AUC was observed 0.711 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.662-0.760) under fixed effect model and 0.708 (95% CI: 0.648-0.769) under random effect model. There was moderate variation among the studies, i.e., I² 50.80% (95% CI: 0.00-80.42%). The overall proportion of mortality was 37.54% with much heterogeneity (I² 88.24%) among the studies. PCT non-clearance is a fair predictor of mortality. Further studies are needed to define optimal cut off point for PCT non-clearance in ICU patients with sepsis.

Keywords: Procalcitonin; sepsis; septic shock.

Figure 1

Forest plot showing the area under curve (95% CI) of the studies to detect procalcitonin non-clearance as a predictor of mortality

Figure 2

Funnel plot showing the area under curve of the different studies with their corresponding standard error

Figure 3

Forest plot showing proportion of mortality in patients with procalcitonin non-clearance

Figure 4

Funnel plot showing proportion of mortality in PCT non-clearance patients of different studies with their corresponding standard error